|
Joseph P. Kaboski and Robert M. Townsend. "An Evaluation of Village-Level
Microfinance Institutions." Working Paper, November 2000.
This paper evaluates village-level microfinance institutions in rural and
semi-urban Thailand using
data from a large stratified; clustered cross-sectional survey. As is
typically the case, micro-finance
institutions have emerged without the benefit of experimental controls. Our
data therefore has neither
randomized participation/ program placement; a pre-specified, narrow set of
institutions with supposedly
known operational and selection policies; nor reliable pre-survey
information on the presence or absence
of a various - possibly endogenously emerging - institutions. Despite the
obvious selection problems,
there is one great advantage: the variation in policies and institutions
observed in the survey allow an
assessment of policies correlated with success. This is extremely important
to policymakers contemplating
expansion of existing programs or new programs.
Our data and analysis allow us to compensate somewhat for the lack of
randomized controls. A key
ingredient is the use of data from multiple instruments - questionairres
and accounts from institutions
themselves, surveys of member and non-member households and interviews with
headmen to elicit village
histories. Thus, the methods here would be applicable in other countries
requiring only an investment
in survey information.
These various instruments allow us to highlight important institutional
characteristics that are cor-
related with proximate measures of institutional success: growth in
membership, savings, and credit
services. Examples of findings uncovered: the positive (negative)
correlation of cash (rice, buffalo) loans
with lending growth; the positive (negative) correlation of pledged
(traditional, time deposit) savings
accounts with saving growth, and the positive correlation of the provision
of agricultural training and
non-agricultural consultation with lending and savings growth, respectively.
We also present evidence that villages with institutions, and villages with
successful institutions in
particular, differ from villages without institutions, or with unsuccessful
institutions, in ways not related
to the institutions themselves. That is, villages where institutions exist
prior to, at the time of, or
after a retrospective date tend to have more financially active households,
but the villages are poorer,
more agricultural, and more informal. Villages with successful lending
institutions average significantly
lower incomes and educational levels, and have less and tighter credit.
Villages with successful savings
institutions tend to have higher levels of credit, but more limited
savings. Evidence suggests these
characteristics predate the instititutions themselves. In short, there is
ample evidence that the apparent
impact of an institution on village members or the impact of a successful
institution has much to do with
the prior characteristics of the respective villages and members.
Thus, an assessment of the direct impact of micro-finance institutions on
household and household
businesses must take this individual and village selection into account.
Linear regressions and simple
probits of the frequency of household business start-ups, credit
constraints in business or agriculture, oc-
cupational mobility, reliance on moneylenders, and asset growth would show
that village-level institutions
have insignificant or even perverse effects. Controlling for village-level
selection and explicitly allowing for
individual selection (correlated errors/ simultaneity in the membership and
impact equations) eliminates
the apparent perverse effects and estimates significant positive effects.
In particular, institutions do seem
to promote asset growth, reduce credit constraints in agriculture, reduce
reliance on moneylenders and
increase occupational mobility. Moreover, the institutional policies and
characteristics correlated with
institutional growth are linked to these direct impacts.
|