|
Robert M. Townsend and Kenichi Ueda. "Transitional Growth with Increasing
Inequality and Financial Deepening." Working Paper, July 2001.
We study models that display growth with financial deepening and increasing
inequality along the
way to a perpetual if distant steady state. In particular, Townsend (1978)
and Greenwood and Jovanovic
(GJ, 1990) describe a model with financial intermediaries, essentially a
complete markets model but with
transaction costs. These consist of a one-time entry fee plus a variable
cost. Here, we use the dynamic GJ
model as a benchmark, and characterize the transitional dynamics, both
analytically and numerically, for
a wider class of utility functions. This necessitates proofs of the
existence of an optimal program and its
equivalence with the value function approach. We present new proofs for
stochastic dynamic program-
ming for the case of unbounded return functions and perpetual growth. Also,
a seemingly non-convex
technology of participation is shown to be convexified by the optimal
choice of portfolio shares among
risky and safe assets. These analytical results also enable us to study
transitional dynamics further with
numerical methods. In particular, we calibrate the model and report
quantitative predictions for Thai-
land 1976-1996, an emerging economy in a phase of economic expansion with
uneven financial deepening
and increasing inequality. To examine the explanatory power of the model,
we carefully construct con-
ditional confidence intervals. We find a discrepancy between the model
prediction and the actual data.
We suspect that barriers to financial deepening cause this discrepancy, and
we evaluate quantitatively
the distribution of the welfare gains from their elimination.
JEL Classification Numbers: G21, G28, 016, 041
|