| Christian
Ahlin and Robert M. Townsend. "Using Repayment Data to Test Across
Models of Joint Liability Lending." Working Paper, June 2002.
Spurred by its successful delivery
of credit to poor borrowers in diverse areas of the developing world,
joint liability lending has caught the imagination of development theorists
and practitioners. Various theories have arisen to explain why joint liability
group-based lending can be an improvement over traditional individual-based
lending. We test across four representative and oft-cited models from
three strands of these theories, focusing primarily on their implications
for group repayment rates given that the group contract is being used.
The basis for comparison is two-fold. We evaluate how well the focal variables
of each model explain the group's probability of repayment. We also develop
the implications of these models over a common set of variables, extending
them wherever reasonable, and use the divergent implications to distinguish
between the models. These extensions yield some theoretical predictions
that appear interesting in their own right. We find that correlation of
borrower outputs can have a positive impact on repayment rates in a range
of models. Cooperation in the group can have a negative effect on repayment
rates by reducing the use of cheap punishments. We test across the models
using survey data from 262 Thai joint liability groups of the Bank for
Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) in conjunction with extensive
survey data from 2880 villagers of the same villages. The Besley and Coate
model of strategic default is strongly supported. The Banerjee, Besley,
and Guinnane model of moral hazard and monitoring is supported in its
predictions regarding monitoring, but not repayment. Moderate support
is found for the Stiglitz model of moral hazard and cooperation and the
Ghatak model of adverse selection. There is also a significant regional
flavor to the results, as the Besley and Coate model seems especially
accurate in the poorer northeast region farther from Bangkok, and the
Ghatak and Stiglitz models perform relatively well in the central region.
We also review and compare our results to the existing empirical literature,
finding common ground, but also new results in several areas. We seem
to be among the first to include the interest rate and degree of joint
liability in regressions, to measure covariance more or less directly
and find it a positive factor, and to find significant effects of social
sanctions on repayment. |